NASA 2026 budget proposal: The impact on prospects for space exploration

By Shaw, Senior Consultant at Novaspace, specialising in space policy and exploration.

The White House’s proposed discretionary budget for fiscal year 2026 includes some of the steepest cuts to NASA in recent memory – targeting the backbone of its Moon-bound ambitions under the Artemis programme; a downside scenario that was predicted by Novaspace’s most recent edition of the Prospects for Space Exploration report, released in May. This article highlights the implications of the proposed budget cuts on international partners and the future of the Artemis programme.

The End of SLS, Orion, and Gateway

At the heart of the budget proposal is the phased cancellation of three key components of the Artemis Programme: the Space Launch System (SLS) rocket, the Orion crew capsule, and the Lunar Gateway, a planned space station orbiting the Moon. All three would be phased out as early as 2026 after three flights. The administration argues that these legacy systems, specifically SLS and Orion, could be replaced by more cost-efficient commercial alternatives.

But experts warn that the transition won’t happen overnight. “As no commercial alternatives are expected to be operational and certified [in time for the fourth flight], significant delays to the Artemis program timeline are unavoidable,” cautions the Novaspace report. Delays to said timeline would likely hand China a critical first-mover advantage in lunar science, resources, and geopolitical symbolism, directly contradicting the Administration’s urgent goal of “returning to the Moon before China”.

The Lunar Gateway Terminated

Meanwhile, the proposed cancellation of the Lunar Gateway could shake the foundations of international collaboration in space. While the station’s technical utility has long been debated—with the Novaspace report foreseeing the Gateway as the most probable element to be cancelled—its diplomatic role is far from questionable. Agencies from Europe, Japan, the UAE, and Canada have already invested heavily, with agreements tied to hardware contributions like the European Service Module, cargo spacecraft, airlocks, and robotic arms.

Should Gateway be scrapped, those partners may be left stranded mid-development, forced to freeze or abandon billions in investments. It could also erode trust in U.S.-led space initiatives, pushing countries to look elsewhere – perhaps opening new doors. If confidence in Artemis continues to falter, international space agencies may seize this moment to take on greater leadership roles—initiating missions and partnerships once thought unfeasible without U.S. backing. Greater collaboration with other countries could also be a result – India, for example, has plans for its own lunar station by 2040. As Novaspace notes, such a shift could reshape the dynamics of international space cooperation in space exploration.

A Future Still in Flux

Of course, it’s important to remember this proposal isn’t set in stone. Congress will have the final word. But the sheer scale of the suggested cuts makes one thing clear: a substantial boost to NASA’s space exploration budget in FY2026 is unlikely. In fact, the forecasted NASA space exploration budget for 2026 under previous conditions stood at over $17bn – these proposed cuts would slash that budget to approximately $15bn according to Novaspace’s estimations. This uncertainty alone casts a long shadow over Artemis—and over NASA’s broader ambitions for space exploration.

Conclusion: A Historic Retrenchment with Global Consequences

These historic budget cuts mark a turning point for US space ambitions, targeting Artemis programmes plagued by unsustainable cost overruns. As Novaspace foresaw, SLS, Orion, and Gateway are now primary casualties—disrupting the Artemis timeline and undermining the Administration’s goal of beating China to the Moon. The repercussions extend beyond technical delays, potentially fracturing international trust and reshaping the global landscape of space exploration. Artemis now faces its most uncertain future yet.