Although 13% of the global broadcast and professional market will have experienced use of 3D by the end of 2011, most of them will have done that via rental and not purchasing of equipment.
Yes, there are going to be quite a few customers of professional stereographic 3D equipment in the next few years and this trend is not just a brief one or a tiny niche. But, stereographic 3D cannot ever become the game changer that HD has been. Nor can it penetrate as many homes or TV stations and production houses as HD. This Opinion is based on findings coming from D IS’ newly published global research report, 3D Production World 2010.
Despite the statistics that suggest that an impressive 13% of the global broadcast and professional market will have experienced use of 3D by the end of 2011, most of them will have done that via rental and not purchasing of equipment. Not until later in the decade will any significant purchases be seen.
With the probable exception of 3D flat panel displays, the leading product genre in 3D production and post-production; most other categories will need more time to take hold. Among the other questions that are going to need settlement are: will the rigs and other ‘adapt your HD gear to 3D’ components survive if the whole market tends to adopt the purpose-built solution? The answer is probably no. So, there is a lot at stake in how 3D gets taken up, not just in whether it will survive.
Among important issues is will the gear be purpose-built 3D equipment or re-purposed HD? Will the viewers need to buy multiple pairs of glasses at a price close to the cost of the sets themselves causing strain on the purse as well as on the eyes? Will they ever want to see more than ‘appointment’ TV programmes such as sports events, rock concerts or travelogues? Additionally, there are various standardisation issues and missing glue Products to make for a full end-to end workflow, without which full 3D will not be feasible. Most people doubt that news will ever be done in 3D, for example. The data also showed that some non-broadcast applications could be important, such as medical imaging, games software, and military mapping.
The survey, which gathered 1,720 responses from broadcasters and video professionals, worldwide, this summer, looked at 3D use or interest and forecast over 10-year instead of our normal five-year span, because there was an acknowledgment that we are in the very early days of 3D proliferation.
There were 10 core 3D product categories: cameras, camcorders, rigs, processors, displays, servers, switchers, graphics, editing and encoders/decoders, studied. Their use or plans were looked
at among: broadcast & cable stations, production/post, mobile/OB, independent videographers/filmmakers, institutional facilities and rental houses. That was done in five regions including USA, Europe, Middle East/Africa, Asia and the Americas.
Judging by the number of manufacturers alone already offering gear in one or more of the genres, 3D has already captured the imagination of the equipment makers, as much as the public, Hollywood and the content delivery entities.
The study findings suggest that this time 3D has staying power, more than
in previous introductions, and that perhaps as much as 25% of the broadcast and production market will eventually purchase 3D equipment, but for now, the majority of users are testing the waters, conservatively, by renting first. Ultimately, however, the real success of 3D may depend not so much on a producer’s ability to create it as the public’s appetite for it.
