Most broadcasters believe that viewers spend hours watching TV during Ramadan. Figures, however, tell us a different story Ramadan is upon us. It may even have started by the time you read this article, written some weeks before the actual event. I am, therefore, going to make some brave predictions about what is likely to […]
Most broadcasters believe that viewers spend hours watching TV during Ramadan. Figures, however, tell us a different story
Ramadan is upon us. It may even have started by the time you read this article, written some weeks before the actual event.
I am, therefore, going to make some brave predictions about what is likely to happen, based on what weve seen over the last year through the people meter data. As the saying goes, Those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it and there is a familiarity about Ramadan television which could benefit from less repetition.
Single source is best
The best coffee comes from a single origin, doesnt it? And the same applies to content. Weve seen two very different approaches between X Factor and Arab Idol, so far, this year.
While Idol is available only on MBC, with a clear message and undivided attention, X Factor is available on three channels, Rotana Khaleejiah, MTV Lebanon and CBC.
I cant tell what happened in their home markets, and maybe, whatever viewing and advertising they got there justified whatever price was paid. But, as far as the UAE market went (arguably a microcosm of the region) the sum of parts was not greater than the whole.
The lesson here is what we have been preaching since data first started flowing from our boxes. People follow content,
not channels.
If you have the show that people want to watch then they will come it might even be the only thing they watch on your channel, appearing at showtime and disappearing the moment the closing titles run. Of course, the viewers need to know about the content, and that requires marketing and promotion. Viewers can be persuaded and a single big hit will bump up the whole channels average.
Its not as big as we think
If you speak to people in television or advertising there seems to be a belief that Ramadan is when people spend hours and hours in front of the television, like shoppers at a discount sale, grabbing every item they can lay their hands on, regardless of whether they really want it or not.
Not surprisingly, the public reacts to this perception when they are asked in surveys about their viewing habits. But, when the viewing is actually measured, the picture is quite different or to put it in another way, its the same.
Figures show total television viewing among Emiratis, Arab expats and all households during Ramadan last year, compared to the last three full months (March-April-May) in 2013.
So, were actually looking at less viewing among Emirati individuals, less than half an hour of extra viewing among Arab expats and around an extra 40 minutes at household level. Ill qualify that by saying that the tview panel was not fully established last Ramadan, but Im fairly confident the results would have been along the same lines.
What is clear, though, is where there is more viewing, it concentrates in the evenings and lasts longer into the night, dipping below normal viewing during the day. The table also shows Arab expat viewing across 24 hours, and the patterns are similar in Emiratis and All Households (categories).
Biggest is not best
Alternatively, this could be titled Pick Your Fights.
Last year, MBC Drama started off slowly but by the end of the month, it had started to eclipse its big sister MBC 1 with all the big series. Overall, Drama was just one hundredth of a percentage point behind MBC 1 in audience share among Emiratis and expat Arabs.
How did that happen? Some people may be familiar with the management concept of Blue Water and Red Water, representing areas where there is relatively little competition (blue) against areas which are hotly contested (red).
MBC 1 plays in red space, competing fiercely for the prime-time post-Iftar family viewing. The top programmes on MBC Drama were:
Banat Al Aayla at 6pm
Saher Al Layl at 5pm
Hebr Al Ayoun at 4pm
Did you spot the trend?
In fact, they all rated more highly across the period than MBC 1s big set-piece Omar.
They didnt start off that way, though. In the first week of Ramadan 2012, the big shows were on top: Omar, Tesh Ayal and Wi-Fi. They trended down over the next few weeks to be overtaken by shows that, perhaps, had less publicity on a channel with lower viewership, but picked up by word of mouth and loyalty, over time.
Conclusion
Having said that, clearly some things will not change. Family viewing is still massive in Ramadan among Emiratis and Arab expats, and the early evening cartoon series will no doubt dominate the programme viewing.
However, by the time I write next months column we should also have had the final of Arab Idol and I will make another prediction, that the top programme of the year will be either Arab Idol or the Gulf Cup football from earlier in 2013 not a Ramadan programme.
On that note, Ramadan Kareem, and I look forward to seeing how it goes for all of us in television.
